LONDON HOUSE PRICE BUBBLE

APIA_blog_June14_housing_bubble
Is there a London house price bubble on the horizon? (Image: APIA Blog 2014)

I was interested and somewhat surprised to read a report from academics at Lancaster University advising that London is heading for a house price bubble by the end of 2016.  The academics used a phrase that I have not heard before describing the London market as “exuberant” and advising that the last time that the Greater London real house prices were identified to be in an exuberant phase was the fourth quarter of 2007.  Interestingly speaking to others who are actively involved in the London market they are actually concerned about a crash and the bubble bursting.  They cite the increase in Stamp Duty to crippling levels.

What impact does this have for the rest of us? In discussions with an expert on the Scottish Property scene he described his feelings for the Scottish Property market as like “corrugated iron” – lots of little ups and downs.  I personally have some real concerns that the general economic backdrop is not good and that the property market will soon be entering stormy waters caused by economic uncertainty, declining bank lending and also tax changes.  I think the Government needs to do all it can to support the property market and I will be the first one to report on an “exuberant” Scottish Property Market!

Lindsay Darroch
Partner – Head of Property
www.blackadders.co.uk

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