Readers of my blogs will know that I am planning to report on my predictions for the 2014 property market once we are passed the end of March. However, I thought it would be interesting to gather some info up to the end of February and give you a brief update. I caveat my comments by saying that these are not based on any official figures but simply from the Blackadders’ Property team stats, pieces of information that I have picked up over the last week or so and also my own feelings about how the property market is performing.
As stated in a number of my market overview blogs, there is still very much an east/west divide in the Scottish property market – the west coast, in particular Glasgow, is very much lagging behind the rest of the country. On the other hand there are signs of improvement in the east coast and Aberdeen is still performing exceptionally well.
My feeling is that transactional levels, i.e. sales and purchases will be up by about 20% and with the number of properties coming on to the market showing a much smaller increase – probably 10%. This ratio can only carry on for so long without there being a serious increase in property price inflation and thereafter stagnation. I am already noticing signs of price inflation in the number of closing dates that I have been offering in the last couple of months, the outcomes of which I monitor very closely. The Blackadders’ Estate Agency team are also coming across the words “we are not prepared to put our house on the market until we see something that we want to buy” – this is potentially the beginning of stagnation (in relation to price inflation it will be interesting to see how the Home Report copes – or doesn’t (!) and I will have a further blog on this shortly).
I am noticing developers gearing up sites and applying for planning permission for large scale developments but these will not come on line, if at all, until 2015.
On a positive note I am noticing an increase in the number of property investors coming in to the market, in particular in Dundee, attracted by its comparatively low entry prices, good rental yields and potential for capital growth on the back of the redevelopment of the city.
Let us hope that the Ides of March do not bode an inflation/stagnation cycle for the property market. I will report again soon.Lindsay Darroch Partner & Head of Property